Jerry and The Juggling Balls
Jerry was a juggler, but Jerry got tired of the juggling caper so he got into manufacturing business - manufacturing juggling balls.
Each of Jerry's juggling balls is made of two skins. Some juggling balls are red and blue - consisting of a red skin and a blue skin; some are pure red - consisting of two red skins. Jerry doesn't sell blue balls - some say it was because those words ("Blue Balls!") were the last two words that Florida yelled as she stormed out of his apartment and then his life, never to be seen again. He still doesn't know what she meant by it.
Half the blue skins are stamped with the name "Feynman", half with the name "Schrôdinger". Only 1 in every 1000 red skins are stamped with "Florida!".
(Jerry didn't stamp every red skin with "Florida!" because he was trying to let go. Indeed he would have stamped only 1 in every 1,000,000 because, after all, she was one in a million, but he didn't think he was going to sell that many balls)
Jerry's juggling balls are sold in sets of three. The balls come in a cloth bag with a string tie in the neck. Every set of three contains a Feynman, a Schrôdinger and a red ball (consisting of two red skins).
Sonia receives a set of Jerry's juggling balls for her birthday from her older brother, Scott, who is an amateur statistician.
Neither Scott nor Sonia have seen the juggling balls and neither knows, or has any reason to believe, that any of the balls have a red-skin stamped "Florida!".
Scott asks Sonia to put a blindfold on and then asks her to select a ball from the bag. Sonia reaches into the bag and pulls out a ball. Scott tells Sonia that the ball has at least one red skin.
Q1. What, at this point, is the probability that the ball is a red ball?
Scott then tells Sonia that the phrase "Florida!" is printed on the ball.
Q2. What, now, is the probability that the ball is a red ball?
Sonia is excited to have received a set of Jerry's Juggling Balls with a rare juggling ball stamped with "Florida!".
During Sonia's birthday dinner, Scott tells his family some big news. He has met a girl who has a single sibling.
Q3. What is the probability that Scott's girl friend's sibling is also a female?
Scott then reveals that his girl friend's name is Florida.
Q4. What is the probability that Florida's sibling is also a female?
Sonia says: "That's funny one of my teacher's two children is a girl named Florida!"
Q5. What is the probability that Sonia's teacher's other child is a girl?
Sonia then corrects herself: "Actually, that was my old teacher. My current teacher also has a daughter and one other child, but neither of them is called Florida"
Q6. What is the probability that Sonia's current teacher's other child is a girl?